Methodology

    How this database is built

    Critical-Minerals.si combines official government lists, the US Geological Survey's production and reserves data, and recent market reporting into one normalized database. Version 1, data as of October 5, 2026.

    Production, reserves and US reliance

    Country production (2024 actual, 2025 estimated), reserves, US net import reliance, import sources and end uses come from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (data release). Shares are calculated against the USGS world total for 2025 on the basis USGS reports (mine production unless noted — e.g. refinery output for gallium, germanium and indium, smelter output for aluminum). Where USGS withholds a country's figure, it is shown as withheld and excluded from shares.

    Individual rare-earth elements share group-level rare-earth oxide production totals, and platinum-group metal reserves are reported combined, because USGS does not publish element-level country figures. Some materials on national lists (e.g. electrical steel, metallurgical coal, helium) have partial or no country breakdown.

    National lists

    Each list was taken from the publishing government or an authoritative summary, then mapped to a single mineral vocabulary. Group entries (rare earths, PGMs) are marked “group” for each member element.

    Supply status

    An editorial assessment based on the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 and current reporting, reviewed for each mineral:

    Deficit Demand projected to outrun supply for years
    Tight Price spikes, export controls or active disruption
    Watch Adequate today but concentrated or exposed
    Adequate Diversified, well-supplied market

    AI relevance

    0 · MinimalNo meaningful direct role in AI infrastructure
    1 · SupportingIndirect or minor role (structures, alloys, niche parts)
    2 · ImportantPower, storage, cooling or key components
    3 · EssentialDirectly inside chips, optics, servers or the grid buildout

    Supply risk index (0–100)

    risk = 100 × ( 0.25 · top-producer share
      + 0.20 · China share
      + 0.15 · US net import reliance
      + 0.20 · export controls (China = 1, other = 0.6)
      + 0.20 · status weight (deficit 1 · tight 0.85 · watch 0.4 · adequate 0.1) )

    It is a transparent screening heuristic for comparison, not a forecast. Missing inputs count as zero, which can understate risk for minerals with withheld data.

    Key market sources

    This site is for research and education and is not investment advice.