China's grip on refining tightens outside rare earths

What happened

A Reuters Events analysis noted that US and Malaysian investment helped lower China's share of rare-earth refining from above 90% in 2023 to about 85% in 2025. But across other critical minerals, China's average refining share edged up from 70% to 72% over the same period.

The IEA expects China to still hold around 70–73% of rare-earth refining in 2035 even if every planned project elsewhere goes ahead, and singles out graphite, magnet rare earths, yttrium and cobalt as especially exposed.

Our take

Rare earths get the headlines, so that is where the money has gone. Meanwhile, the quieter refining markets — battery materials, graphite, many minor metals — have consolidated further in China. Diversifying one link doesn't diversify the chain.

The US strategy has shifted toward equity stakes, stockpiles and price floors rather than broad clean-energy subsidies. Whether that sticks will depend on policy staying consistent long enough for projects that take five to ten years to finish.

Why it matters for AI infrastructure

Data centers increasingly pair with battery storage, and battery chemistry runs through Chinese-dominated refining for graphite, lithium and cathode materials. The power side of AI is as exposed as the chip side.