AI demand and tariffs send copper to a record
Copper is having its moment: shrinking mine output, AI and grid demand, and tariff panic all pointing the same way.
What happened
US copper futures settled at a record of about $6.89 per pound in early September before pulling back. Copper was up more than 15% in 2026 and around 40% over twelve months, outperforming gold, bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Global mine output fell about 1% in the first half of 2026 by industry estimates, with Chile — the largest producer — down more than 6%. Uncertainty over a possible US tariff on refined copper sent buyers rushing to ship metal into the country ahead of any duty.
Our take
Two things are true at once. Short-term, a lot of the spike is positioning — stockpiling ahead of tariffs plus speculative money chasing momentum — which can reverse quickly. Long-term, the fundamentals are genuinely tight: ore grades are falling, new mines are slow to build, and electrification demand keeps compounding.
Refined copper is technically still in surplus today. The worry is the pipeline: if mines keep underperforming while demand climbs, the surplus disappears fast.
Why it matters for AI infrastructure
Copper is the single largest mineral input to an AI data center by weight, and most of it goes into the grid connection rather than the building itself. Wire and cable costs were already up sharply year over year, which flows straight into data-center construction budgets.
What we're watching
- A decision on US tariffs for refined copper
- Chilean and Peruvian output in the second half
- Utility capex plans that lock in multi-year copper demand