Copper study group cuts 2026 mine growth again as concentrate stays tight

What happened

After its meetings in Lisbon, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said on 14 October that world copper mine production would grow 1.3% in 2026, down from the 1.6% it projected in April, Canadian Mining Journal reported. The cut reflects lower expected output in Chile, China and Indonesia. Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the DR Congo remain constrained after incidents in 2025.

Concentrate shortages are holding back smelters, so refined production is forecast to rise only 0.4% this year, against 1.5% growth in refined usage. ICSG still projects a refined surplus of 104,000 t in 2026 and 368,000 t in 2027, with mine growth accelerating to 3.1% and refined output to 3.4% next year.

Separately, BHP CFO Vandita Pant said this week that the copper market is likely to move into structural deficit from around 2028, Argus reported.

Our take

Don't read 'surplus' as 'plenty'. A 104,000 t refined surplus is a rounding error in the world market, and it exists partly because scrap and stockpiled material are filling gaps. The underlying problem is at the mine: this is the second downgrade to 2026 growth this year.

The 2027 surplus assumes a broad recovery at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, Chile and Zambia, all at the same time. If even one of those slips, the balance swings toward deficit. That would support BHP's warning arriving earlier than 2028.

Why it matters for AI infrastructure

Copper is the wiring of the AI build-out: power distribution, busbars, transformers and grid connections for every new data centre. When mine supply grows only about 1% a year, new demand from data centres competes directly with grids and EVs for the same tonnes.

The concentrate squeeze also hits refining. When smelters can't get enough feed, refined output stalls even as data-centre and grid demand grows. With China alone accounting for 59% of global refined copper consumption, according to ICSG figures reported by Canadian Mining Journal, Western data-centre builders are competing for a thin slice of a tight market.