World Bank: metals prices set for a record year, with copper, aluminium and tin at highs
The World Bank names data centres among the drivers of record base-metal prices, and it does not expect those prices to fall back much.
What happened
The World Bank released its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook on 28 October. It forecasts its metals and minerals price index will rise 25% in 2026 to a record annual average, with aluminium, copper and tin all hitting all-time highs. The bank attributes the gains to strong demand from investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, together with supply disruptions this year.
Prices are expected to ease 3% in 2027, but the report says 'a high-price regime is expected to remain entrenched', with the index projected to exceed its 2021 peak by 16%. According to Manila Bulletin's summary of the report, the bank forecasts copper to average $13,200 a tonne in 2026, up from $9,947 last year, and aluminium $3,250, up from $2,632.
Our take
The striking part is the 2027 view. The World Bank expects only a small decline next year, which means it sees today's prices as structural rather than a spike. That supports BNEF's argument last week that copper needs new mines now, even while near-term refined supply looks adequate.
Record prices are the signal the industry needs to build. But as BNEF and the ICSG both point out, new mines take many years, so high prices are more likely to show up first in substitution, recycling and smelter restarts than in new tonnes.
Why it matters for AI infrastructure
The World Bank explicitly lists data centres alongside renewables and EVs as a reason base metals are at records, and describes data centres as base-metal-intensive. Copper and aluminium go into everything from grid connections to busbars and cooling.
For developers, this means metal costs are now a real line item in data-centre budgets, not a rounding error, and it strengthens the case for long-term supply contracts.
What we're watching
- Whether LME copper holds near the World Bank's 2026 average forecast
- Aluminium smelter restarts in response to record prices
- Data-centre capex guidance from hyperscalers in Q3 earnings
- Tin supply from Myanmar, Indonesia and DR Congo
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