Glencore's cobalt output halves as it leaves metal unprocessed under Congo quotas
Congo's quotas are not just limiting exports. They are changing how the world's biggest cobalt miners run their plants, and creating a hidden stockpile.
What happened
Glencore's third-quarter production report, released on 29 October, shows own-sourced cobalt output of 13,700 tonnes for January to September, 14,800 tonnes (52%) below the same period of 2025. Third-quarter output was 3,500 tonnes, down 20% from the second quarter. The company attributes the decline to the DRC's cobalt export quota regime and a continued focus on copper, whose own-sourced output rose 3% to 598,600 tonnes.
Glencore says cobalt contained in mixed ore is increasingly being retained in solution rather than processed into saleable hydroxide, with value expected to be realised as export regulations evolve. Material held this way is not counted as production. The quotas remain in place until at least the end of 2027, and Glencore's KCC and Mutanda operations hold enough stock to meet near-term allocations, according to the report. MINING.COM notes that the volume held in solution has not been disclosed.
Our take
This is a quota system working as intended: Congo wanted to take supply off the market to support prices, and one of the world's largest cobalt producers, as MINING.COM describes Glencore, is now leaving metal in the ground, or more precisely in the tank. It shows how much power a single producing country has over a mineral when it decides to act.
The undisclosed volume in solution is the wild card. It is effectively a private stockpile that can be converted quickly when rules loosen, which caps how far prices can run but also means any quota relaxation could flood the market. Either way, cobalt supply is now a policy decision in Kinshasa as much as a mining outcome.
Why it matters for AI infrastructure
Cobalt is used in lithium-ion batteries, including those in data-centre backup power and battery storage, and in superalloys for gas turbines, including those used for on-site power. A supply set by export quotas rather than by mines is harder to plan around.
For buyers outside China, the bigger issue is that fewer tonnes leaving Congo leaves less room for alternative refineries to secure feedstock.
What we're watching
- Any change to DRC cobalt export quota allocations for 2027
- Disclosure of how much cobalt Glencore is holding in solution
- Cobalt hydroxide and metal prices outside China
- Responses from CMOC, the other large DRC producer
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